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***CaptHayfever*** · 06-23-2009, 01:32 PM

The Monty Hall problem is well-known already.
Monty Fall appears to have the same answer, as its conditions are ultimately identical.
Spoiler Below

The official answer is 2/3 for switching. I still have issues with this, as no one has ever adequately explained to me why the switch decision is not a new choice.

Monty Crawl
Spoiler Below

depends entirely on which door Monty opens. If he opens #1, then you are under the same conditions as the previous two, so it's 2/3 odds for switching. If he opens #2, it's 100% odds that you should take #1, whether it was your original pick or not.

Of course, you're not asking for the mathematician's (casewise logic) answer; you're asking for the statistician's (total probability estimate) answer, which is, funnily enough, stil 2/3 for switching.

And remember, "I'm-a Luigi, number one!"

06-23-2009, 01:32 PM	#2
*CaptHayfever* Smash SuperMod Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: (n) - the place where I am Gender: Posts: 27,642 Thanks: 1,989 Thanked 2,483 Times in 1,510 Posts	The Monty Hall problem is well-known already. Monty Fall appears to have the same answer, as its conditions are ultimately identical. Spoiler Below The official answer is 2/3 for switching. I still have issues with this, as no one has ever adequately explained to me why the switch decision is not a new choice. Monty Crawl Spoiler Below depends entirely on which door Monty opens. If he opens #1, then you are under the same conditions as the previous two, so it's 2/3 odds for switching. If he opens #2, it's 100% odds that you should take #1, whether it was your original pick or not. Of course, you're not asking for the mathematician's (casewise logic) answer; you're asking for the statistician's (total probability estimate) answer, which is, funnily enough, stil 2/3 for switching. And remember, "I'm-a Luigi, number one!"