Video Game Forums - View Single Post

**Deku Trii** · 06-24-2009, 07:28 AM

^
Spoiler Below

I don't think so, actually. The usual monty hall conditions aren't in effect because he wasn't equally likely to pick either of the other doors. In the monty crawl variant, the information you know about the methodology by which he picks the door makes it equally likely that the car can be won by switching or not switching if he picks the lower numbered door.

I'm not sure how your explaination adds up to 2/3. There's only a 1 in 3 chance he'll pick the higher numbered door, and a 2/3 chance he'll pick the lower numbered door. If your odds were 2/3 for switching when he picked the lower numbered door, you'd win by switching 1/3*1+2/3*2/3=7/9 times.

06-24-2009, 07:28 AM	#5
Deku Trii PP&R Mod Current Events Mod Join Date: Jun 2000 Location: Texas Gender: Posts: 9,029 Thanks: 521 Thanked 1,098 Times in 582 Posts	^ Spoiler Below I don't think so, actually. The usual monty hall conditions aren't in effect because he wasn't equally likely to pick either of the other doors. In the monty crawl variant, the information you know about the methodology by which he picks the door makes it equally likely that the car can be won by switching or not switching if he picks the lower numbered door. I'm not sure how your explaination adds up to 2/3. There's only a 1 in 3 chance he'll pick the higher numbered door, and a 2/3 chance he'll pick the lower numbered door. If your odds were 2/3 for switching when he picked the lower numbered door, you'd win by switching 1/31+2/32/3=7/9 times.