Zelda Mafia Round 3: Day Three

[Saria Dragon of the Rain Wilds]

TG, how did we play as Mafia last game? By killing people that would incriminate someone else, mostly. You're presenting a single possiblility for the Mafia, when there's a world of opportunities. I doubt they'd just choose someone quiet; they're not threatening.

Also, what in the hell kind of risk would the Mafia have? Are we all idiots? Are we going to choose someone totally at random to lynch, thereby MAYBE hitting a Mafia member? No. One or two of the Mafia will gently direct the first lynching.

Of course, if you really think we learn something by people dying, how about we start off lynching you? I bet we could learn a wealth of information

[Rainbow Dash]

Originally Posted by Saria Dragon

*laughs* That's all fine and dandy, Chunky. I don't know why it would be suspicious. Want to take an objective look at this with me?

Mafia wants Townies dead.

Mafia can get an "easy" kill on Day One.

Mafia wants to avoid an Abstain vote, so they can get their easy kill.

By all means, keep your FoS on people who don't want to throw a wild vote around, but stop and think about whether or not it's actually a suspicious thing to do, or if you're being led by the suggestion of others.

It's just that we've all learned abstaining on the first day is a bad idea. Round 2's opening was a fluke, because Wy specifically requested it.

[Kargath]

(I blink and refresh and this topic moves 4 posts or so. So I apologise in advance if this post gets out-of-date by the time I'm finished it.)
(Also, you can use the little orange button next to "Thanks" to mark multiple posts over multiple pages, and then hit Post Reply (not quick reply) to collect multiple quotes into one reply. That way, you'll avoid having doubleposts, TG.)

One dead body if we do not lynch today. Guaranteed to be non-mafia.
Two dead bodies if we lynch today. The second is extremely likely to be non-mafia due to the numbers.
(Hell, there's even a tiny chance we have a town blocker AND they hit the mafia killer, leading to no kill at all.)

Why take the risk of knocking out, say, the town detective on the first night? Right now, the potential damage the town would do to itself with knocking out an important role far outweighs the damage a lucky shot would do to the mafia.
"No power-role" games may exist, but this is not one of them.

FOS: That Guy (for unusually aggressive play less than a few hours into the game)
FOS: Chunky (for misspelling my name even though I've kept repeating myself to everyone for the past 7 years ())

I disagree with SD that the Mafia will always go for a lynch first day - they may be content with appearing to be cautious townies but still letting the mob tear itself apart. It is, however, a very likely option.

TG: It's not so much that losing a sole Townie is a "good" thing, but it's the least bad of all the options. See my reasoning above.

Mikhail Gorbachev: I agree with you that we should not end the day early, at least. Also, who are you? (Not in-game, but your original PDN)

... I hit "Preview Post" and the thread explodes again. ARGH.



Blake: oh god why did you remind me that fight was coming? I don't think I'm going to go back to my DX file now

[heh]

Originally Posted by Saria Dragon

TG, how did we play as Mafia last game? By killing people that would incriminate someone else, mostly. You're presenting a single possiblility for the Mafia, when there's a world of opportunities. I doubt they'd just choose someone quiet; they're not threatening.

Why not? If they kill someone quiet you have no more information then you did day one, unless someone claims.

Also, what in the hell kind of risk would the Mafia have? Are we all idiots? Are we going to choose someone totally at random to lynch, thereby MAYBE hitting a Mafia member? No. One or two of the Mafia will gently direct the first lynching.

I do not advocate a random lynch. Ever. Bad idea. Mafia do make mistakes, and when they don't they have behavior that can be traced to them.

Of course, if you really think we learn something by people dying, how about we start off lynching you? I bet we could learn a wealth of information

Probably. Like, we could trace the lynch back to you suggesting to lynch me for suggesting that we don't start day 2 with no information and a townie dead.

[Saria Dragon of the Rain Wilds]

Hey, I didn't say always. I just mean that it's definitely in their best interest to nurture the First Day Lynch. It's the easiest daykill in the whole game, because people are foolhardy.

I want this day to drag out. If there's a GOOD reason to lynch someone, then it'll be great. If it's just to "learn information", then why don't we just start roleclaiming instead?

[I am nobody]

I was trying not to get voted for on the first discussion day this time..

Dragging the day out might be best. It gives us more to use on the second day without risking us killing a townie.

[Blake]

Originally Posted by That Guy

Why not? If they kill someone quiet you have no more information then you did day one, unless someone claims.

I disagree with this simply because quiet people can also prove useful to mafia. If, for instance the player is VERY inactive and forgets or does not vote effectively, then it can almost be considered an extra vote for the mafia or a wasted vote for the townies.

[Cravdraa]

Okay, now first things first. As newly appointed townie, fallen from the grace of game host, it's my job to get things started.

Now logicly, the first thing we need to do is lynch HotD because she's clearly mafia and people follow her too much.

[Saria Dragon of the Rain Wilds]

Yep, trace it back to me, I'm soo suspiscious. Then we can get me lynched tomorrow. Hooray! Another Townie gone.

I want this made clear, TG. At this stage, I have no reason to think you're anything other than a "good intention" type of player, thus, probably not Mafia (I have hopes that the Mafia wouldn't put themselves straight into the spotlight, aside from that). But I'll be damned if I'll sit and let you dictate how the game is meant to be played. There are MORE WAYS THAN YOURS. Don't tell people they don't know how to play just because they don't fly your way.

Also, Wyborn? I hope you put Phantom Ganon (or Puppet Ganon) in as Mafia. That would = awesome

**** yes, Crav. Lynch HotD! Also CL, for being an Inde. Lynchings will be HAD

[Wyborn]

FoS/Vote List

Fingers of Suspicion

Kargath - ChunkyKong12345
Saria Dragon - ChunkyKong12345
Chunky12345 - Kargath
That Guy - Kargath

Votes

Abstain - Kargath
i_am_nobody - The Missing Link
CuccoLady - That Guy
X-3 - Mikhail Gorbachev

With 20 left it takes 11 to lynch

[Mikhail Gorbachev]

One dead body if we do not lynch today. Guaranteed to be non-mafia.

Throwing out the possibility of a serial killer or an overeager vig, yes. Or there's a redirector role that has a slight chance of redirecting the kill to a mafioso. Or there's a 'bus driver' role like chunky last game that just might end up switching the target with another mafioso. Who knows?

Two dead bodies if we lynch today. The second is extremely likely to be non-mafia due to the numbers.

Wrong. We're not lynching randomly.

(Hell, there's even a tiny chance we have a town blocker AND they hit the mafia killer, leading to no kill at all.)

Or there's a doctor role. Or the target has night kill immunity (probably only once). Who knows?

Why take the risk of knocking out, say, the town detective on the first night?

On the first night? You mean first day. Anyway, we're not lynching randomly.

Right now, the potential damage the town would do to itself with knocking out an important role far outweighs the damage a lucky shot would do to the mafia.

Unlikely becausen not only are we not lynching randomly, but there are such things as roleclaims.

"No power-role" games may exist, but this is not one of them.

But, since this is an all-power role game, losing one small power role is unlikely to hurt the town much. Hell, we lost the doctor night one of game one.

FOS: That Guy (for unusually aggressive play less than a few hours into the game)

SD is much more aggressive IMO.

Mikhail Gorbachev: I agree with you that we should not end the day early, at least. Also, who are you? (Not in-game, but your original PDN)

I am sometimes referred to as 'Captain Namechange' or 'Fnord.' My original PDN, which some people still call me was 'Pixelated Penguin.' You may remember me as 'Lorem Ipsum.'

[Cravdraa]

FoS: Wyborn

Yeah, that's right buddy. You heard me. Just because you're the "game host" that doesn't clear you with me. Sounds like the perfect alibi. Too perfect.

FoS: SD

Agreeing with me? That's suspicious.

[heh]

Originally Posted by Kargath

(I blink and refresh and this topic moves 4 posts or so. So I apologise in advance if this post gets out-of-date by the time I'm finished it.)
(Also, you can use the little orange button next to "Thanks" to mark multiple posts over multiple pages, and then hit Post Reply (not quick reply) to collect multiple quotes into one reply. That way, you'll avoid having doubleposts, TG.)

Thank you! Now when i make a megapost i on't **** it up! I've been looking for that.

One dead body if we do not lynch today. Guaranteed to be non-mafia
Two dead bodies if we lynch today. The second is extremely likely to be non-mafia due to the numbers.
(Hell, there's even a tiny chance we have a town blocker AND they hit the mafia killer, leading to no kill at all.)

Actually, its not "highly unlikely" to lynch a mafia first day. Day one mafia lynchs happen all the time and not just when they screw up.

Why take the risk of knocking out, say, the town detective on the first night? Right now, the potential damage the town would do to itself with knocking out an important role far outweighs the damage a lucky shot would do to the mafia.
"No power-role" games may exist, but this is not one of them.

HINT: Roleclaims. That would be bad for us, of course, but we aren't lynching at random. And killing mafia is more important then protecting power roles.

FOS: That Guy (for unusually aggressive play less than a few hours into the game)
FOS: Chunky (for misspelling my name even though I've kept repeating myself to everyone for the past 7 years ())

I like how you say this is Unusally aggressive when i've only played one game here and I was mafia. But yeah, I guess i come off to aggressive sometimes, sorry.

I disagree with SD that the Mafia will always go for a lynch first day - they may be content with appearing to be cautious townies but still letting the mob tear itself apart. It is, however, a very likely option.

Well, in my experience mafia always goes for a lynch, but only because nobody goes for nolynchs. Here it is acceptable to nolynch, so I Guess that does not apply.

TG: It's not so much that losing a sole Townie is a "good" thing, but it's the least bad of all the options. See my reasoning above.

Least bad of all options is that we lynch mafia, hero hits mafia, and mafia botch their kill. Unlikely, but the first part isn't as unlikely as you might think.

Preview edit: Uhhh... i think this post is obsolete already, oh well.

Thank you cravdraa for embracing the jokevote phase, but unfourntly it's passed.

Or never happened in the first place

Unvote Vote Fnord for stealing my megapost

[Saria Dragon of the Rain Wilds]

I'm a pretty irritable person, you know, when someone says YU DUN NO HOW 2 PLAI GAEMZ RITE

FoS: Crav

That's some wild FoSings, buddy. I don't know if I can trust the likes of you... TOSS LOVER.

[Heroine of the Dragon]

Hmmmm...

Seriously... some of you guys are voting already? I'm so confused. ANY of you who votes now is suspicious in my eyes. I believe that it's WAAAAAAY to early to think of voting for anyone because, on what grounds are you pushing this vote??

An early lynched member might tell you more than you ever wanted to know. Follow me here...

SO... if you manage to cast enough suspicion upon a person and garner the votes needed, what happens "tomorrow" IF they turn up as OUR HERO on the first lynch?... then HOW are you going to explain your actions? Why would you even risk something like that this soon? Even if you're a misguided Townie... and you stick to your decision... you cost us other Townies unnecessary time in focusing time upon what and why and HOW the next day if you lynch a Townie straight away.

Do you understand what I'm trying to say here?

If you wait a little while and start working some things out, I could understand this a bit better... maybe. But right now, I feel... BAH!!!! I feel all suspicious and paranoid of everyone. I don't know a single role except my own and it's a strange feeling to begin another game not knowing anyone else's alignment again.

[Cravdraa]

What makes you think I'm joking? Wyborn is DAMN suspicious.

[heh]

unvote vote HotD for saying its bad to vote, democracy is good, you facist.

(srsly though, FOS's don't get you anywhere, its not like votes are final.)

[Wyborn]

Originally Posted by Cravdraa

What makes you think I'm joking? Wyborn is DAMN suspicious.

Revealing the mod-role?

That's a paddlin'.

[Microphone_Kirby]

(Concerning Voting/ending up Abstain)

I've been thinking about the Abstain arguement and I decided to do a little math...

Lets say that anything better than 2-1 Townies vs. Mafia and no Townies dying is desired (and thus Bolded). I'm considering mostly probability here, not psycology, mind you:

Possible outcomes for one Mafia Night-Kill (which will be at least attempted): 1 townie and 0 Mafia and 0-0 considering there's probably a protector Role or an item of that nature. Not too bad; 50-50

For One Lynch (which is a gaurenteed kill IMO) and one Mafia Night-Kill: 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, and 2-0. Again, 50-50 good and bad.

For a lynch, A hero kill (or a Serial Killer Kill) and a Mafia Kill: 1-0, 1-1, 1-2, 2-0, 2-1, and 3-0. 2/6 are desired outcomes...

For a lynch, A hero Kill, A Serial Killer Kill, AND a Mafia Kill: 1-0, 1-1, 1-2, 1-3(Highly unlikely, but Possible), 2-0, 2-1, 2-2, 3-0, 3-1, and 4-0. 4/10 are Desired.

Only 2 night-Kills: 0-0, 1-0, 1-1, and 2-0. 50-50 again.

Three Night-Kills: 0-0(Three protective Items/roles seems unlikely, but you never know), 1-0, 1-1, 1-2, 2-0, 2-1, and 3-0. 4/7 are desired.

Yeah, I'm a bit of a Math Freak. So what?

Now, My opinion after all this math: Abstaining Day one might not be such a bad idea, but I think we should take as much time as we need talking. You never know what evidence/slip ups might occur.

[Blake]

On a similar not to Crav's I forgot to do something important:

Fos: Marilink

He says he missed the signups dates, but he must be in the game! He must be the late vig-busdriving-serial killer-psychopathic-evilest,discreet,daybomb,town idiot lynch the first day, mafia guy!