Zelda Mafia Round 2, Night 2

[The Missing Link]

Originally Posted by ChristmasLady

My win condition states that I can only win if it is me and one other member left. Thusly, IFFFF I survive and help you kill off mafia, and eventually it's just me 'n' townies left, they can lynch me. There's no way for me to win... and an advantage for townies.

I want to draw specific attention to this.

The Slasher LOSES if the Mafia wins.* In essence, if the Slasher wins, ONLY the Slasher wins.

Let me state this in other terms:

If the Slasher primarily targets Townies, the Slasher is pushing the Mafia closer to victory. Therefore, it is not in the Slasher's best interest, at least in the early part of the game, to help the Mafia.

Now, of course, in the long term, the Slasher will be forced to kill of Townies. That's just par for the course. However, we KNOW who she is; we can kill her at any time. But more importantly, the MAFIA knows who she is; THEY can kill her at any time. It really boils down to this: (1) To a Townie, the Slasher is like Mafia, but (2) to the Mafia, the Slasher is like a Hero. If CL survives tonight, unless the Mafia has any inkling of who the Heroes are, CL will almost certainly die.

I am not suggesting that we forget about CuccoLady; that would be foolhardy. However, I have a VERY strong suspicion of who one of the Mafia members are. I cannot yet prove it though, but it is a strong possibility. If we can strike Mafia blood today, then we should take them out so that the Mafia is forced to waste a kill on the Slasher. If we cannot, then and only then should we string up CuccoLady as the Slasher.

* The only exception is that if there are three players left--one Mafia, one Slasher, and one Townie, and the Townie is hung. Then, both Slasher and Mafia win.

Correction to the above post: If CL survives our lynching, unless the Mafia has any inkling of who the Heroes are, CL will almost certainly die.

[That Guy]

Originally Posted by ChristmasLady

My win condition states that I can only win if it is me and one other member left. Thusly, IFFFF I survive and help you kill off mafia, and eventually it's just me 'n' townies left, they can lynch me. There's no way for me to win... and an advantage for townies.

Also, of course, if I have bad aim... couldn't you kill me then?/ Give me a chance, and if I help, I help... but if I mess up, you kill me and have one less person to worry about.

Then again, in revealing my role, I knew I'd die, so... it's your decision. Make a deal with the devil... or kill the devil. Whichever works for you.



....

And another thing. I also wouldn't have revealed my role if I wasn't trying to help townies... just so ya know.

I'm done for now. Think about it and act... because, if you don't kill me now, I think there's a PRETTY good chance the mafia'll get me tonight.

But if you don't kill Hottie in the day, she'll never die...

because infinite bulletproofing is balanced on townies right

You have no idea if she can survive another attack.

Also TML, The slasher loses if the Townies win, the slasher only wins if the slasher wins. where are you getting this SLASHER HATE MAFIA thing from?

[ZeldaGirl]

I'm going to place my trust, not with CL, but with TML. I'm going to withdraw my vote (for now), and see if he really is on the right track.

[I am nobody]

That Guy: I know Blake is dead, I didn't catch that until after I had posted.

As for CL:

I think we should just take out HotD. CL can take out someone during the night, and then get killed by the mafia. It could potentially mean 2 mafia in one day. (Or she could miss, HotD could be townie and the hero misses as well meaning 4 townies in one day..... I'm not sure what to do right now.)

Also, if I haven't done it yet:

Vote: HotD

[Heroine of the Dragon]

The Townies have NO reason to keep the Slasher alive.

Originally Posted by CL

Maybe Wy's just smarter than us. I didn't figure out anything about the slasher until he mentioned it; but now that he did, he's probably right. Crav wouldn't have mentioned that excerpt about the independent kill if it didn't affect us.

I KNEW I READ THIS!!!!!!

CL... (and to reply to the rest of that post that I didn't copy in... you didn't proceed cautiously enough... I discovered you.) I don't believe you'll stay true to the Townies EVEN ONCE!!!! Somehow, you know I'm a Townie and something about my role and you want to help the Mafia, even though you keep saying the opposite.

You can say anything you like about your win conditions since Crav has specifically stated that we are to paraphrase our PMs. Your win conditions are in DIRECT OPPOSITION to mine own... and to any other TRUE TOWNIES who should be aware that this game relies upon us meeting our true objectives... destroy ALL evil!!!

I find it mega interesting those people who have posted, seen CL admit her evil-ness and yet refrained from voting!!!

Thank you, TML, for finally working out how to communicate with Wy!!! I just couldn't think straight and come up with what was so blindly obvious!!!

*leaps over and hugs Wy* Thanks for answering what you could and sorry if that hurt...

IAN... worst case scenario... which you just mentioned... are you willing to Vote out a Townie, have CL hit a Townie, have the Mafia decide that was fun since CL agreed she'd hit only people agreed upon IN PUBLIC, and hit another Townie and have the Hero get all excited and also hit a Townie???

Do you know that with even TWO Townies gone in one night, that the chances of the Mafia starting to determine who the Heroes are, are smaller??? WHOSE SIDE ARE YOU ON AGAIN????

[The Missing Link]

Originally Posted by That Guy from Christmas Future

Also TML, The slasher loses if the Townies win, the slasher only wins if the slasher wins. where are you getting this SLASHER HATE MAFIA thing from?

Let's look at it from this perspective. We have 19 players left: 1 is a slasher, 5 Mafia members, and 13 Townies (more or less).

If the Slasher solely targets Townies, then, by the standard rules, the Mafia wins the moment our numbers are equal to theirs. So if there are 5-6 Townies, 5-6 Mafiosos, and 1 Slasher, the Mafia wins. Thus, the Slasher immediately loses because her win condition is not met.

However, if the Slasher solely targets Mafia, then we'll get down to 1 Slasher versus everyone who's still alive. The game MUST continue until all the Townies die. Thus, the Slasher can still win the game. (Of course, the more Townies there are when the Mafia is exterminated, the greater difficulty the Slasher has in winning.)

The Slasher thrives when the two sides are in chaos with one another, but most especially when the two sides are relatively balanced. When the Townies kill Mafia and Mafia kill Townies, every kill helps the Slasher. The Slasher's goal is to keep both sides balanced--to cut the Townies down if they get too powerful and to cut the Mafia down if they get too powerful.

However, in the beginning of the game, the Mafia have all the advantages. They have knowledge. All the Townies have is numbers, but they are easily able to kill one another by sheer accident. Just by sheer odds, the Townies will tend to drop faster than the Mafiosos. Therefore, the Slasher's goal is to rebalance the game as best she can until it becomes a fair fight--and that means helping the Townies short term.

Long term, it's a very different thing. However, if we don't vote CL, it seems to me to be logical that the Mafia would vote her off tonight. After all, the one thing they DON'T start with... is numbers.

[I am nobody]

HotD: Remind me why we wouldn't take her out if the mafia had not already done so on day 3?

[The Missing Link]

---

As a bonus, CL has also made it inherently clear that she won't win the game as Slasher. She's revealed herself. She's now a very ready target on both sides. If we don't vote her tonight and the Mafia doesn't kill her tonight, something would be VERY suspicious indeed.

That would tell me she's not Slasher but MAFIA. She would be our Day Three kill.

[Chunky Kong12345]

What would be the point in keeping her around, TML?

It's one step toward Townie victory and we wouldn't have to abstain or kill another innocent.

[The Missing Link]

It's a very logical argument, Chunky.

Let's assume that CL is Slasher. I think she's made it abundantly clear.

CASE 1: We abstain.
Mafia kills CL for us.
Result: One step closer to victory.

CASE 2: We accidentally vote for a Townie.
Mafia kills CL for us.
Result: No gain, no loss.

CASE 3: We vote and nail a Mafia member.
Mafia kills CL for us.
Result: TWO steps closer to victory.

CASE 4: We vote for CL.
Mafia votes for some innocent, possibly at random.
Result: No gain, no loss.

Pardon my logic, but I would take a venture that Case 3 is our optimal condition. That's why I haven't revealed my suspicions on who is Mafia yet. I'm only 45% confident.

[Heroine of the Dragon]

Why permit TWO night kills when you can guarantee that the Mafia has only one with the Slasher gone? With only one night-kill happening, the Townies can finally breathe easier in seeking out Mafia.

None of you have even come close to sharing evidence of anyone who might be Mafia. I have no idea why not if you want to save a Slasher.

IAN, you are very amusing. You believe a Slasher. The, like, evil one. The one who lied blatantly as I showed above, before she was freaked out and role claimed when she realised I had found her out. Did you even suspect CL was evil when you began Day two, IAN??? Because I did.

Why do you assume the Mafia will make CL a target tonight? We've no way of knowing what they are thinking... whether they think they have worked out a Hero... and whilst they think CL is going to discuss her night-kills, they may actually believe that her helping them with EVEN ONE kill is worth the risk.

WHAT IF YOU ALL AGREE TO A NIGHT-KILL WITH CL AND YOU HIT A HERO????? Of course, some of those people influencing CL have to be Mafia... because we now know who the slasher is... and the Mafia want CL to hit people they want to see are Heroes without them actually having to do it themselves and maybe miss.

I'm sorry, but you people scare me when I think about it.

[The Missing Link]

Until I am reasonably assured that we have a Mafia member nailed, my vote is on CL. I'm not going to chance this one.

What remains to be seen is whether or not we can out a Mafia member. I'd like to hope we might be able to do so.

---

By the way, HotD, calling someone a liar when you yourself are one is downright hypocritical.

FoS: HotD

[I am nobody]

HotD: I'm not beliving her. If she survives, my vote(I will be out of town from the 14th to 29th, I may not be able to get on from the 14th to 21st,[Highly unlikley though] so if I don't vote that is the reason.) without question.


You say you have been suspicious of CL since day 1. Well, I've been suspicious of you for just as long.

HotD's Double post: Why wouldn't the mafia kill her? They need the slasher dead almost as much as they need the heros dead.

[Heroine of the Dragon]

Where's my lie regarding my alignment, TML?

[I am nobody]

Originally Posted by Heroine of the Dragon

Where's my lie regarding my alignment, TML?

Um... He just said you lied. Nothing about what it was about.

[Heroine of the Dragon]

Hmm IAN.. who would you have CL night-kill for you tonight? What if that person is a Hero? Will you say sorry you made a mistake? What if that person is a Townie? You think you can just say sorry and lynch CL tomorrow after YOU AGREED to the night-kill?

[That Guy]

Originally Posted by The Missing Link

It's a very logical argument, Chunky.

Let's assume that CL is Slasher. I think she's made it abundantly clear.

CASE 1: We abstain.
Mafia kills CL for us.
Result: One step closer to victory.

CASE 2: We accidentally vote for a Townie.
Mafia kills CL for us.
Result: No gain, no loss.

CASE 3: We vote and nail a Mafia member.
Mafia kills CL for us.
Result: TWO steps closer to victory.

CASE 4: We vote for CL.
Mafia votes for some innocent, possibly at random.
Result: No gain, no loss.

Pardon my logic, but I would take a venture that Case 3 is our optimal condition. That's why I haven't revealed my suspicions on who is Mafia yet. I'm only 45% confident.

...well sure, this is fine, except your completely leaving out people with special roles not only as accidental lynching targets but as night actions, HotD could die, CL might be doctor protected, someone could land a lucky curse on a mafia member, etc. Not all of those things are bad, but they sure do make it more complicated then "one in two chance of moving forward". And, on your earlier post about how CL lynching townies is bad, you forget that the mafia ca'nt win if Link (and some other hero) if link is still alive, (assuming crav didn't take that element out.) and that in most games the game does not end if the SERIAL KILLER is still alive.

But, faulty math aside, you do put forth a good argument. I will think about it.