Is the recession ending?

**Valigarmander** · 08-10-2009, 07:15 PM

U.S. recession seen ending in third quarter | Reuters

Quote:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The worst U.S. recession since the Great Depression will probably end in the third quarter, but uncertainty exists over the speed and duration of the economic recovery, according to the most recent survey of private economists.

The Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey of private economists released on Monday showed about 90 percent of the respondents surveyed believe the economic downturn will be declared to have ended this quarter.

This upbeat assessment followed recent government data showing gross domestic product (GDP) contracted at a shallow 1.0 percent rate in the second quarter after sinking 6.4 percent in the January-March quarter.

Recent data, including housing and key labor market indicators, have suggested a bottoming in the recession and the economy close to turning the corner. The economy slipped into recession in December 2007.

The Blue Chip survey's findings are broadly in line with a Reuters poll published last month, which predicted growth in the third quarter, though a brisk pace of expansion was not expected until late 2010.

"Debate now centers on the speed, strength and durability of the recovery," the survey said.

It showed nearly two-thirds of respondents believed the economy was set for a U-shaped recovery, marked by below-trend growth in gross domestic product before stronger growth took hold in the second half of 2010.

About 17 percent of the respondents anticipated a V-shaped rebound, where growth pulled back to its trend rate on a sustained basis, while the same percentage fretted that a W-shaped recovery could follow, the survey showed.

"In their view, GDP growth will pop higher for a quarter or two only to falter again before a lasting recovery takes hold," the survey said.

HIGHER GDP GROWTH

Growth in the second half was expected to garner support from a reduction in the pace of business inventory liquidation, marginal improvements in consumer spending and residential investment. The survey predicted that non-residential investment, however, would remain a drag on GDP.

Despite the improved economic picture, unemployment was expected to remain a problem, with the jobless rate predicted to peak at just over 10 percent late this year or early 2010, the survey showed. It was seen falling only slowly thereafter.

Government data on Friday showed the unemployment rate nudged down to 9.4 percent in July from 9.5 percent in June, but mostly because many people dropped out of the labor force.

"About 70 percent of the panelists believe the jobless rate will not dip below 7.0 percent on a sustained basis until the second half of 2012 or later," the survey said.

However, job losses could fade late this year or early 2010 and payrolls start to expand as companies rebuild inventories, which should lengthen the workweek, according to the survey.

The weak labor market, together with excess capacity in many business sectors were seen dampening inflation pressures.

"Consumer price inflation, excluding food and energy costs, will increase by slightly less in 2010 than in 2009," the survey said.

So, more and more economists are predicting that the recession (in the U.S., at least) will be coming to an end sooner rather than later. I'm not gonna jinx it and say this is a recovery, though, but I'll be hoping this is true. What're your thoughts/hopes/concerns?

**Crazyswordsman** · 08-10-2009, 07:48 PM

As someone who could get laid off any minute, I'm always hopeful. Because being fearful is what the Republicans want me to do, and I'm not gonna take any crap like that. -CSM

Vgfian · 08-10-2009, 07:51 PM

^So you don't suppose that any Republicans worry about money, and you assume that they would all wish you ill?

On topic: Hopefully this means it will work out soon.

**Crazyswordsman** · 08-10-2009, 08:00 PM

TheHill.com - Cornyn: Public anger on healthcare a good opportunity for GOP -CSM

Metal Man · 08-10-2009, 11:22 PM

Eh, it's easing, but that isn't fixing all those lost jobs.

Bomby · 08-11-2009, 10:13 AM

I can afford to wear pants again!!

***Cosmonautical*** · 08-12-2009, 08:07 AM

The US economy is very tenuous. I'm uncomfortable with their business policies, and am very happy that we have stricter labor laws in Australia.

08-10-2009, 07:48 PM	#2
Crazyswordsman This key doesn't work. Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Booyaville (yeah!) Gender: Posts: 10,791 Thanks: 1,019 Thanked 686 Times in 467 Posts	As someone who could get laid off any minute, I'm always hopeful. Because being fearful is what the Republicans want me to do, and I'm not gonna take any crap like that. -CSM

08-10-2009, 07:51 PM	#3
Vgfian Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Listening to Seeking 7 Seven and giving out free hugs. :) Gender: Posts: 6,862 Thanks: 2,433 Thanked 398 Times in 311 Posts	^So you don't suppose that any Republicans worry about money, and you assume that they would all wish you ill? On topic: Hopefully this means it will work out soon.

08-10-2009, 08:00 PM	#4
Crazyswordsman This key doesn't work. Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Booyaville (yeah!) Gender: Posts: 10,791 Thanks: 1,019 Thanked 686 Times in 467 Posts	TheHill.com - Cornyn: Public anger on healthcare a good opportunity for GOP -CSM

08-10-2009, 11:22 PM	#5
Metal Man Fairy-Slaying Maniac Join Date: Apr 2000 Location: 1592 Miles Away From Here Gender: Posts: 18,062 Thanks: 148 Thanked 683 Times in 482 Posts	Eh, it's easing, but that isn't fixing all those lost jobs.

08-11-2009, 10:13 AM	#6
Bomby You just freaking blew Joe Biden's mind! Join Date: Jun 2000 Location: WHAT?house Gender: Posts: 19,491 Thanks: 513 Thanked 1,449 Times in 849 Posts Blog Entries: 5	I can afford to wear pants again!!

08-12-2009, 08:07 AM	#7
*Cosmonautical* Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: I rub my tilde all over your asterisk Gender: Posts: 28,100 Thanks: 2,151 Thanked 5,338 Times in 2,433 Posts	The US economy is very tenuous. I'm uncomfortable with their business policies, and am very happy that we have stricter labor laws in Australia.