Unofficially Official US Primaries Thread

Discussion in 'Politics, Philosophy, and Religion' started by Kargath, Mar 6, 2016.

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  1.  
    Kargath

    Kargath et in Arcadia ego

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    After another "Super" weekend in the US, the shape of the race is firming up.

    Hilary isn't running a perfect campaign, but Sanders has basically no chance of winning. Trump is no longer an unbeatable phenomenon, Rubio appears to be hoping to steal a thousand delegates at the convention, Kasich appears to be just running as a single-state spoiler candidate, and Cruz is now within striking range of the lead.

    My take:
    After an enormous post-debate surge for Cruz, I'm hoping for a true conservative win in the end.
    (Really, it was huge. Early voting showed a large margin for Trump, but on-the-day voting Cruz's percentage DOUBLED. Admitting you're "flexible" on immigration policy when being a hardarse has been your main draw up until now is VERY dumb.)

    What does everyone else think?
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    Shane

    Shane Administrator Staff Member

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    Sanders is just a distraction. Even when he wins, he still loses.

    I thought Trump would have been done months ago. His staying power has been remarkable. The establishment is surprised, too, and they are starting to accept that the best hope may be a brokered convention. Rubio seems to have been left behind with the rest of the field. Even the Florida win he's banking on still wouldn't make a dent. As there are fewer horses in the race, I think that bodes better for Cruz than Trump.

    I was interested in seeing what would happen if Bloomberg got in there and shook things up, but I don't think he'll see the need given the current path.
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    Valigarmander

    Valigarmander Creepy Mario Mod Staff Member Supporter

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    I'm half ready to accept the inevitability of a Trump vs. Clinton election, and half hoping for this already-surprise-filled primary to yield a few more.
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    LOOT

    LOOT how horrifying

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    Clinton's only advantage is the possiblity of Super delegates favoring her into summer, and considering her lead is a LOT worse than when Obama was running at this point, it's actually extremely likely Sanders is going to pull ahead

    would be nice to have a president that cares about the health of America and actually fought for civil rights instead of some ass-faced conservative like the two dominating GOP candidates
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    Deku Tree

    Deku Tree Awesome Current Events and PPR Mod Staff Member

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    I'm interested to see if Trump wouldn't run independent if he had the most delegates and didn't get the nomination.
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    I am nobody

    I am nobody I am not mean spam Staff Member

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    ^^Clinton is still polling 10+ points ahead nationally and is the overwhelming favorite in all of the next 5 primaries. I'd still prefer a close race, but at this point I don't see how that's going to happen unless Clinton gets indicted or the Sanders campaign suddenly hires PR god. Clinton's regular delegate margin even grew yesterday because her win in the more populous Louisiana was massive. He's down 210, and the next 10 days aren't going to help that.

    Cruz isn't actually much ahead of Rubio in most national polls, but it doesn't seem like Rubio's support is concentrated enough anywhere to actually win. Picking up Florida might swing a few "at least he isn't Trump" Cruz voters his way, but he has to make up quite a lot of ground in a week to pull that off.
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    Shane

    Shane Administrator Staff Member

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    If Trump loses because of backroom deals, I could see him walking and handing the race to Hillary. He has no allegiance to the party elite.
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    CaptHayfever

    CaptHayfever Awesome Smash Bros Mod Staff Member

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    If Trump wins, I could see him handing the race to Hillary anyway. As in, I have nagging suspicion that if he wins against her in November, he will immediately resign as president-elect & let her have it.

    And remember, "I'm-a Luigi, number one!"
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    X-3

    X-3 The Worst Member Staff Member

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    Valigarmander

    Valigarmander Creepy Mario Mod Staff Member Supporter

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    Bomby

    Bomby Employee of the Month for Oct. 2011 Staff Member

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    I'll settle for Clinton. It's pretty well-known that she's not exactly the most ethical politician, but in the end, political candidates are about policy. Last thing we need is a climate change denier in office. This is an emergency ****ing situation. Can't be too picky about not having a 100% perfect candidate at this time.

    Honestly though, supporting Sanders would still be settling for me, though I'll be the first to admit that my preferred candidate (O'Malley) didn't have a chance of even winning his home state.
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    Sim Kid

    Sim Kid Well-Known Member

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    I'd have voted in the primaries if my state wasn't a closed primary.
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    Kargath

    Kargath et in Arcadia ego

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    Rubio wins in a landslide ... in Puerto Rico....
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    Shane

    Shane Administrator Staff Member

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    That got me to thinking what actually would happen if someone dropped out after winning, and the Constitution seems rather ill-prepared for it. Nobody would quit, but surely there's a chance of someone dying over those months. It's only happened once before, and that candidate lost in a landslide anyway. Because the popular vote isn't actually what determines the President and the death happened before the meeting of electors, his electors were allowed to vote for whomever they wanted. Aside from the 3 votes cast for the dead guy, the rest went to those on the ballot with similar ideological leanings. Of course, in today's world, there really is no such thing. The closest you might be able to get is the Libertarian candidate that nobody knows. This assumes this happens before the electors meet and not after, which has never been tested, but presumably would fall to Congress to decide in that scenario.

    Bloomberg says he's definitely out, but he has not yet decided which woman he wants to vote for.
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    Valigarmander

    Valigarmander Creepy Mario Mod Staff Member Supporter

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    Clinton and Trump won in Mississippi.
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    Deku Tree

    Deku Tree Awesome Current Events and PPR Mod Staff Member

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    I'm sure it all makes sense somehow, but it made me laugh that they were able to call Mississippi for Clinton 180 votes in.
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    Valigarmander

    Valigarmander Creepy Mario Mod Staff Member Supporter

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    Looks like Trump took Michigan as well.
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    Valigarmander

    Valigarmander Creepy Mario Mod Staff Member Supporter

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    Aaaand Michigan has been called for Sanders. By a very narrow margin.
  19.  
    LOOT

    LOOT how horrifying

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    Shane

    Shane Administrator Staff Member

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    Clinton and Trump further solidified their leads, but the real prize is next week.

    Cruz picked up a win in Idaho, but that was about the only somewhat good news for him. Even Kasich had a better night than Rubio. Looks like Clinton picked up more delegates in both states, despite the split decision, and is now past the half way mark.
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