Zelda Mini Mafia 3: MAFIA WINS - Page 3 - VGF

Blake · 04-16-2008, 09:54 AM

Well if he doesn't have a replacement and someone is lynched or killed on day/night 1 then someone may take the spot. At the moment(consisting of this entire day) it's not really going to affect much as we would still need 8 votes to lynch. The only setback would be that there would be 1 less input from this person.

Daos · 04-16-2008, 09:57 AM

Vote: CL

For trying to trick me in Round 4.

The Joker · 04-16-2008, 10:22 AM

^ Too bad SD isn't playing this round

Microphone_Kirby · 04-16-2008, 10:47 AM

^That I can agree with, Joker! Maybe I'd show her a thing or two after getting owned by her!!!!

The Missing Link · 04-16-2008, 11:17 AM

Well, let's do some numbers right off the bat. We've got 15 players in the game. Three Mafiosi would be a scant 20% of the Town, which is too low. Five Mafiosi would be 33-1/3% of the Town, which has been done and is roughly fair, but That Guy seems to have this nagging idea that there usually "can't be" X Mafiosi because it's too big a number. (I mean, in my game, 7 Mafiosi out of 25 was 28%, and that was "too many.")

My hunch is that we're dealing with a 4-vs-11 game (and goddesses know which side ??? is on); however, I wouldn't rule out a 5-vs-10 game... just for the sake of That Guy trying to trip us up.

This is probably the last metagaming post I'm going to make. I've learned my lesson that metagaming means I almost always guess wrong, but getting a benchmark of how many "mans" we have usually is a good motivational factor for not screwing up early and often.

**Dr. Horrible** · 04-16-2008, 11:22 AM

FoS: CL

Back to your old tricks, missy? I lost count of how many times mafia members "had something come up" and "wouldn't be able to post much" last game.

***ZeldaGirl*** · 04-16-2008, 11:38 AM

^That's actually quite an excellent point, Deku.

The Joker · 04-16-2008, 01:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Missing Link

My hunch is that we're dealing with a 4-vs-11 game (and goddesses know which side ??? is on); however, I wouldn't rule out a 5-vs-10 game... just for the sake of That Guy trying to trip us up.

You wouldn't be trying to subtlety convince us that there are less mafia members than there really are? Are you TML??….because it would be a clever tactic for a mafia member to try and hide their true numbers.

FOS: TML

I am nobody · 04-16-2008, 01:06 PM

I don't know why ??? hasn't registered yet. The spot is up for replacement if anyone wants it.

The Missing Link · 04-16-2008, 01:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joker

You wouldn't be trying to subtlety convince us that there are less mafia members than there really are? Are you TML??….because it would be a clever tactic for a mafia member to try and hide their true numbers.

FOS: TML

Actually, Joker, I have a habit of overestimating the number of Mafiosi in a given game. I'm usually the one convinced that there's one more than what everyone else expects there to be. This is the cross product of having set up my own game (where my research has indicated that anything between 1/4 and 1/3 of the population tends to be Mafia) as well as a personal belief that the metagaming is, in general, a bad strategy in this game because the moderator can make a set-up that penalises metagaming tactics.

Basically, what I'm saying is that it is highly likely that there are at least four Mafiosi in the game. I would not be surprised at all if there was a fifth at all, and my only reason for suggesting that there might not be is my knowledge that That Guy is repeatedly on record suggesting that, when the Mafia percentage starts getting significantly bigger than 25%, the Mafia has too many members. Of course, That Guy could be counting on us thinking that way and have done so just to screw us up.

In short, at least four... highly unlikely that there are more than five.

**Dr. Horrible** · 04-16-2008, 02:15 PM

I don't think you could have more than five unless they didn't have night kills or something. That would mean the game could be over by dawn of day 2 if there were a mislynch and a vig with bad aim.

The Joker · 04-16-2008, 02:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Missing Link

Actually, Joker, I have a habit of overestimating the number of Mafiosi in a given game. I'm usually the one convinced that there's one more than what everyone else expects there to be. This is the cross product of having set up my own game (where my research has indicated that anything between 1/4 and 1/3 of the population tends to be Mafia) as well as a personal belief that the metagaming is, in general, a bad strategy in this game because the moderator can make a set-up that penalises metagaming tactics.

Basically, what I'm saying is that it is highly likely that there are at least four Mafiosi in the game. I would not be surprised at all if there was a fifth at all, and my only reason for suggesting that there might not be is my knowledge that That Guy is repeatedly on record suggesting that, when the Mafia percentage starts getting significantly bigger than 25%, the Mafia has too many members. Of course, That Guy could be counting on us thinking that way and have done so just to screw us up.

In short, at least four... highly unlikely that there are more than five.

And with that I retract my previous comment.

Remove FOS: TML

**S1x** · 04-16-2008, 03:44 PM

Hey Fnord

If you're Mafia this time, then I have the record town streak this time now.

sooooo

Vote: namechange

terrible reasoning ftw

Mikhail Gorbachev · 04-16-2008, 03:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by S1x

Hey Fnord

If you're Mafia this time, then I have the record town streak this time now.

sooooo

Vote: namechange

terrible reasoning ftw

Heh, don't count on it.
Also, how many games have you been in again? Breaking the record for streak would imply you had a higher streak than I ever had. And unless I become scum soon it'll be awhile before my streak of 7 is broken. (ZM1-4, ZMM1-3)
If I'm ever scum, though, I'll probably either get lynched D1 or investigated N1.
...btw, Deku, why'd you investigate me last game? Did I look scummy?

The Joker · 04-16-2008, 04:14 PM

^ You looke a little scummy to me...what with that giant knife in your hand !!

Mikhail Gorbachev · 04-16-2008, 04:16 PM

I was Wolf Link. I couldn't use weapons, let alone items of any sort.

The Joker · 04-16-2008, 04:21 PM

^

It was a joke....

***ZeldaGirl*** · 04-16-2008, 04:21 PM

FoS: Joker

A little violent there, doncha think?

Mikhail Gorbachev · 04-16-2008, 04:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joker

^

It was a joke....

I know.

04-16-2008, 08:49 AM	#41
The Joker So a gun walks into a bar.... Join Date: Apr 2000 Location: The Planet of Eternal Darkness Gender: Posts: 9,951 Thanks: 1,096 Thanked 252 Times in 184 Posts Points: 285.87 Bank: 9,491.65 Total Points: 9,777.52 Donate	^ __________________ Now every post can have headbangy goodness

04-16-2008, 09:57 AM	#43
Daos Banned Forum Mod Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Earth Gender: Posts: 4,934 Thanks: 57 Thanked 90 Times in 60 Posts Points: 5,934.89 Bank: 91,260.58 Total Points: 97,195.47 Donate	Vote: CL For trying to trick me in Round 4. __________________ I am terror, I am Daos.

04-16-2008, 10:22 AM	#44
The Joker So a gun walks into a bar.... Join Date: Apr 2000 Location: The Planet of Eternal Darkness Gender: Posts: 9,951 Thanks: 1,096 Thanked 252 Times in 184 Posts Points: 285.87 Bank: 9,491.65 Total Points: 9,777.52 Donate	^ Too bad SD isn't playing this round __________________ Now every post can have headbangy goodness

04-16-2008, 04:14 PM	#56
The Joker So a gun walks into a bar.... Join Date: Apr 2000 Location: The Planet of Eternal Darkness Gender: Posts: 9,951 Thanks: 1,096 Thanked 252 Times in 184 Posts Points: 285.87 Bank: 9,491.65 Total Points: 9,777.52 Donate	^ You looke a little scummy to me...what with that giant knife in your hand !! __________________ Now every post can have headbangy goodness

04-16-2008, 04:21 PM	#58
The Joker So a gun walks into a bar.... Join Date: Apr 2000 Location: The Planet of Eternal Darkness Gender: Posts: 9,951 Thanks: 1,096 Thanked 252 Times in 184 Posts Points: 285.87 Bank: 9,491.65 Total Points: 9,777.52 Donate	^ It was a joke.... __________________ Now every post can have headbangy goodness

04-16-2008, 09:54 AM	#42
Blake Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: A generic place such as a house Gender: Posts: 3,179 Thanks: 239 Thanked 56 Times in 47 Posts Points: 3.00 Bank: 10,850.54 Total Points: 10,853.54 Donate	Well if he doesn't have a replacement and someone is lynched or killed on day/night 1 then someone may take the spot. At the moment(consisting of this entire day) it's not really going to affect much as we would still need 8 votes to lynch. The only setback would be that there would be 1 less input from this person.

04-16-2008, 10:47 AM	#45
Microphone_Kirby Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Black... all I see is black... Gender: Posts: 4,913 Thanks: 255 Thanked 77 Times in 68 Posts Blog Entries: 2 Points: 175.40 Bank: 16,247.67 Total Points: 16,423.07 Donate	^That I can agree with, Joker! Maybe I'd show her a thing or two after getting owned by her!!!!

04-16-2008, 11:17 AM	#46
The Missing Link Professional Lurker Join Date: Dec 2000 Location: New Hyrule, Washington, US Gender: Posts: 15,573 Thanks: 80 Thanked 183 Times in 110 Posts Points: 6,307.15 Bank: 54,243.76 Total Points: 60,550.91 Donate	Well, let's do some numbers right off the bat. We've got 15 players in the game. Three Mafiosi would be a scant 20% of the Town, which is too low. Five Mafiosi would be 33-1/3% of the Town, which has been done and is roughly fair, but That Guy seems to have this nagging idea that there usually "can't be" X Mafiosi because it's too big a number. (I mean, in my game, 7 Mafiosi out of 25 was 28%, and that was "too many.") My hunch is that we're dealing with a 4-vs-11 game (and goddesses know which side ??? is on); however, I wouldn't rule out a 5-vs-10 game... just for the sake of That Guy trying to trip us up. This is probably the last metagaming post I'm going to make. I've learned my lesson that metagaming means I almost always guess wrong, but getting a benchmark of how many "mans" we have usually is a good motivational factor for not screwing up early and often.

04-16-2008, 11:22 AM	#47
Dr. Horrible PP&R Mod Current Events Mod Join Date: Jun 2000 Location: More important than where is when.... Gender: Posts: 6,304 Thanks: 103 Thanked 272 Times in 171 Posts Points: 1,466.72 Bank: 1,793,477.93 Total Points: 1,794,944.65 Donate	FoS: CL Back to your old tricks, missy? I lost count of how many times mafia members "had something come up" and "wouldn't be able to post much" last game.

04-16-2008, 11:38 AM	#48
*ZeldaGirl* Venting SuperMod Join Date: Jun 2001 Location: Why do YOU want to know...? Gender: Posts: 11,640 Thanks: 490 Thanked 717 Times in 483 Posts Points: 21,574.62 Bank: 300,009.62 Total Points: 321,584.24 Donate	^That's actually quite an excellent point, Deku.

04-16-2008, 01:06 PM	#50
I am nobody Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Here's a hint: There are people here. Gender: Posts: 3,047 Thanks: 105 Thanked 97 Times in 64 Posts Blog Entries: 3 Points: 2,888.69 Bank: 0.00 Total Points: 2,888.69 Donate	I don't know why ??? hasn't registered yet. The spot is up for replacement if anyone wants it.

04-16-2008, 02:15 PM	#52
Dr. Horrible PP&R Mod Current Events Mod Join Date: Jun 2000 Location: More important than where is when.... Gender: Posts: 6,304 Thanks: 103 Thanked 272 Times in 171 Posts Points: 1,466.72 Bank: 1,793,477.93 Total Points: 1,794,944.65 Donate	I don't think you could have more than five unless they didn't have night kills or something. That would mean the game could be over by dawn of day 2 if there were a mislynch and a vig with bad aim.

04-16-2008, 03:44 PM	#54
S1x VGF RPG Mod Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: Either over there or right here Gender: Posts: 4,726 Thanks: 14 Thanked 173 Times in 54 Posts Blog Entries: 1 Points: 50,070.63 Bank: 25,407.07 Total Points: 75,477.71 Donate	Hey Fnord If you're Mafia this time, then I have the record town streak this time now. sooooo Vote: namechange terrible reasoning ftw

04-16-2008, 04:16 PM	#57
Mikhail Gorbachev Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2004 Gender: Posts: 9,468 Thanks: 24 Thanked 59 Times in 44 Posts Points: 141.13 Bank: 22,571.07 Total Points: 22,712.20 Donate	I was Wolf Link. I couldn't use weapons, let alone items of any sort.