Zelda Mini Mafia 3: MAFIA WINS

[ZeldaGirl]

^Except, provided that if you are truly town, that's one less townie the mafia has to worry about. This plan is seriously flawed.

[Dr. Horrible]

That's why I said I'd do it "if we're not filling the position otherwise." Then the mafia don't gain an advantage because the other role is essentially dead already.

[ZeldaGirl]

Well, we cannot automatically assume ??? is even a town role. Harking back to the very first mafia game, Panfan was Ingo, and indy who was allowed to choose to become mafia - he was inactive, and ultimately replaced CL. Wyborn, who was mafia at the time, was willing to stake everything by saying that that role wasn't a mafia role. Alas and alack, we all saw how that turned out.

My point is, nobody, especially if you are town, should be "sacrificing" themselves through a lynching to fill the other role. It's silly.

[Wyborn]

Thanks, ZG, I guess that idea is out the window.

For the record, I trust DT more then the rest of you, now.

[Mikhail Gorbachev]

Originally Posted by S1x

Hm, is this going anywhere?

General question: How cool do you think your role is?

Took a while to fully understand mine, but it's pretty neat.

nice rolefishing. 'hey can everyone tell whether you have a lame role that can't hurt the scum or a strong one that should be nightkilled quick'
scum gain some info from it (townies could be lying too, but they're probably not), townies gain almost none.

Originally Posted by Wyborn

Well....mine's pretty standard, as far as roles go, but I think I'll enjoy having it.

If that's true, that might be a bad thing to reveal. If you mean REALLY standard... uh... well, I hope you mean vanilla then because the scum probably think you're the cop, doc, or vig.

Originally Posted by Blake

I've heard rumors about something like 'odd numbered games' prevail more often than 'evil numbered games.' Does any of this hold water? Because I'm curious if we should try lynching on Day 1 for a change.

Originally Posted by The Missing Link

I'm going to do a quick look at the odds when it comes to even- and odd-population towns. I honestly would swear that the argument that came with that MafiaScum article wasn't calculated correctly (seems unintuitive), but again, I'm not going to play by a metagame strategy, so...

Seems pretty solid to me. It's easy to see that a town with 2 town, 1 scum is better off than one with 3 town, 1 scum. Easily extended to 15 player games.
Assuming random lynching, just for example, 4P is a 3/4 mislynch compared to 2/3 for the other, and in both one mislynch costs the town the game. 4 town, 1 scum would be better, of course. 3 to lynch, 1 mislynch takes it down to 3 v. 1 and a nightkill takes it to 2 v. 1 lylo. So an even total population suffers from an increased likelyhood of mislynching but provides no more tolerance for mislynching than a town with one less.

Originally Posted by Blake

The only time we tried a lynching on day 1 was in Mafia 2 right? There must be a way to find a mafia on day 1! I say we go after an inactive as far as lynching goes. Even though Mafias evolve, hiding amongst the shadows seems to be quite popular cause it makes all the talkative townies accuse each other on day 1.

Lynching inactives is a horrible idea. It isn't hard to find mafia on day 1. Lynching for the sake of lynching, though, is always a bad idea.

Originally Posted by Deku Trii

That's why I said I'd do it "if we're not filling the position otherwise." Then the mafia don't gain an advantage because the other role is essentially dead already.

And how exactly do you know that role isn't a mafioso?

[Wyborn]

Lynching inactives is rarely if ever a bad idea.

To further clarify: I only put that out there so someone would volunteer and effectively confirm themselves as Town. I knew no Mafia would volunteer - unless they anticipated this.

Still, that whole bit is shot, now. Phooey.

[Mikhail Gorbachev]

Lynching a random inactive instead of whoever's the scummiest is a good idea how?

[S1x]

Numbers are everything. If a townie sacrifices themselves today, as long as the Mafia's kill goes through that's 2 gone by the start of day 2. Plus, if ??? is not pro-town, there's an extra disadvantage.

If we just let the Mafia kill somebody, and ??? is pro-town, we basically have the same statistics as we do today. Should he be Mafia, it's only 1 down plus we have extra info from night actions.

A -2 or -1 vs. a -1 or 0

Hmmmmm

[Dr. Horrible]

Originally Posted by Mikhail Gorbachev

And how exactly do you know that role isn't a mafioso?

I suppose I don't. I'm just hesitant to believe that Ian would risk the number of mafia in the game on whether or not the mystery player showed up. Though, if I did wake up Mafia I'd want me out of the game anyway.

[S1x]

damn Wyborn's post nullifies this one

Er, that one

Originally Posted by Mikhail Gorbachev

nice rolefishing. 'hey can everyone tell whether you have a lame role that can't hurt the scum or a strong one that should be nightkilled quick'
scum gain some info from it (townies could be lying too, but they're probably not), townies gain almost none.

You have an interesting definition of "cool"

[Daos]

Day One can seem like an excercise in futility just because no actual information is gleaned. However abstaining or lynching a town member right off the bat is even worse.

[The Missing Link]

Originally Posted by Mikhail Gorbachev

Seems pretty solid to me. It's easy to see that a town with 2 town, 1 scum is better off than one with 3 town, 1 scum. Easily extended to 15 player games.
Assuming random lynching, just for example, 4P is a 3/4 mislynch compared to 2/3 for the other, and in both one mislynch costs the town the game. 4 town, 1 scum would be better, of course. 3 to lynch, 1 mislynch takes it down to 3 v. 1 and a nightkill takes it to 2 v. 1 lylo. So an even total population suffers from an increased likelyhood of mislynching but provides no more tolerance for mislynching than a town with one less.

The original article is found here: Numbers, Part 1 - MafiaWiki

The problem is that this article states the Town has a better chance of winning when the total population is EVEN... yet what you just said (and what I believe to be truth) is that the town has a better chance of winning when the total population is ODD.

That's why I want to revalidate those numbers.

[Mikhail Gorbachev]

Originally Posted by S1x

You have an interesting definition of "cool"

not mine, I used wiktionary

Originally Posted by The Missing Link

The original article is found here: Numbers, Part 1 - MafiaWiki

The problem is that this article states the Town has a better chance of winning when the total population is EVEN... yet what you just said (and what I believe to be truth) is that the town has a better chance of winning when the total population is ODD.

That's why I want to revalidate those numbers.

Huh, I guess you're right... maybe it means the townie population?

[Wyborn]

Voting is never random; that whole discussion is moot.

[Mikhail Gorbachev]

Okay, fine. Replace 'random' with 'arbitrary.'

[Rayman FREAK]

Somebody could write a bunch of names on slips of paper and pull one out of a hat at random...

I'm not quite sure if that's what you mean by "random," because certainly the decision to vote is never random...

I don't even know where this discussion came from, really. Eh.

[Mikhail Gorbachev]

Originally Posted by Rayman FREAK

Somebody could write a bunch of names on slips of paper and pull one out of a hat at random...

I'm not quite sure if that's what you mean by "random," because certainly the decision to vote is never random...

I don't even know where this discussion came from, really. Eh.

And if scum 'randomly' decide? Bad idea.
if only we still had [dice] tags...

[Rayman FREAK]

Okay, you mean to say that voting can't be proven to be random.

Gotcha.

[The Missing Link]

Of course, the actual odds are going to be much different than that listed on that page. Mafiosi will screw up (hopefully). Cops (should they exist) will find targets (hopefully). And patterns amongst the Mafiosi will be discovered (hopefully), all of which directly benefit the Town.

But that's important. Because, otherwise, look at the numbers in question. They're assuming "random" voting when only 2 or 3 Mafiosi exist amongst 24 players. Or in our case, 1 or 2 out of 15. That's 13% Mafia and less. There's no way there are that few Mafia in our game. We've probably got four Mafiosi at the least, which gives the Town -- should they vote randomly -- less than 50% chance of winning the game. Our goal as Townies should not be to lynch randomly but to lynch accurately.

Basically, what I'm driving at is that all of this probability talk is purely theoretical. After the first game of this that I played, I quickly realised that much of it isn't deeply practical. There might be a case here or there when probability helps a lot, but generally, talk of odds and what might be -- fathoming what might exist and metagaming -- often proves a fruitless direction of investigation.

[Tales of CuccoLady]

TML used NUMBERBEAM!

IT'S SUPER EFFECTIVE!!!

...Bah, my head hurts. At this point, I don't see the point of arguing over what numbers benefit the town and what don't because frankly we can't change the numbers without making a lynch, and we might want to do that sooner rather than later--but only with evidence.

As TML said, talking about roles and numbers and things that can't be changed/helped/important is not a good thing. I did it Round 2 in order to throw the town for a loop and not get lynched. That didn't work. xD

My point is, all this number talk is just getting us into a conversation about MafiaWiki. Which doesn't help us much.

So what say you we go back to the important conversations?

S1x, my role? It is cool. That's all I intend to say to you, mister rolefisher.