National Dunce Day Discussion Thread

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#341

Post by Shane » Mon Dec 19, 2016 7:42 am

What happened historically is moot unless you also shift the historical landscape to how it is today. Though Texas is still very much red, it may well be purple in a couple elections. California meanwhile has dramatically shifted left since voting for the first Bush. Of course, even California at that much of a gap doesn't necessarily guarantee a victory (hopefully nothing can guarantee anyone victory), but it is a key piece to the puzzle of making elections easier. It's plausible that over time it will shift back as well, but the people pushing for the popular vote movement aren't thinking that way.
Now I know there's a reason you shouldn't blame others when you do something wrong, and that reason is: you might get caught and have to apologize to a bunch of dumb peasants.

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#342

Post by CaptHayfever » Mon Dec 19, 2016 10:18 am

People who are suddenly pushing for the popular vote aren't thinking that way. People who've been pushing for the popular vote for decades are well aware that it swings both ways.

And remember, "I'm-a Luigi, number one!"

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#343

Post by I am nobody » Mon Dec 19, 2016 3:42 pm

Republicans losing appeal is their problem, not the popular vote's.


EDIT: And for what it's worth, the GOP would be basically screwed if Texas went reliably purple, anyway, so the Electoral College isn't changing much under that premise.

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#344

Post by Shane » Mon Dec 19, 2016 6:41 pm

Most of the people calling for a popular vote now have two things on their mind. Bush v. Gore and Donald Trump is literally Hitler. They don't realize that it could potentially backfire because predicting the electoral map very far into the future is unreliable at best. Even just 10 years ago, I don't think anyone would have predicted what happened in 2016.
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#345

Post by CaptHayfever » Mon Dec 19, 2016 6:49 pm

Today's electoral results:

Trump officially lost 2, both from Texas; 1 switched to Kasich & 1 to Ron Paul.
Clinton officially lost 4, all from Washington; 3 switched to Colin Powell & 1 to Faith Spotted Eagle.

Several of the original electors, however (from both red & blue states), complained that they were replaced before they could vote.
The 6 who got through, though, make the highest count of faithless electors since 1912 (which barely even counts, since those 8 only went faithless because the VP candidate on their ticket died & they picked a different VP for practical reasons).
The next high count before that was 27 in 1896, again focused entirely on VP candidates.
Before that were 63 in 1872, again because of a dead candidate.
The 23 in 1836 again only switched on the VP vote.
The last time a plural number of electors changed votes to protest a presidential candidate was in 1832, when 2 electors bailed on Henry Clay & 30 bailed on Martin Van Buren.

And remember, "I'm-a Luigi, number one!"

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#346

Post by I am nobody » Mon Dec 19, 2016 7:41 pm

^Van Buren was Jackson's VP in that election, though. He ran for president in the next election, when all 23 of the ones you mentioned kept up the trend by going against his VP.

[QUOTE="Shane, post: 1616527, member: 1"]Even just 10 years ago, I don't think anyone would have predicted what happened in 2016.[/QUOTE]

I mean, my OP in this thread shows how many people weren't predicting this even six weeks ago, so I certainly don't disagree with you on that count.

And I actually also agree that an effective opposition is necessary for good government, but you can't artificially create that by propping up a less popular party through weighting votes or (as both parties are shamelessly guilty of) gerrymandering. If the GOP truly is losing appeal so rapidly that a popular vote election would knock them out of competition for decades, then the Electoral College is the worst thing possible for them, because it's (a) only delaying the inevitable and (b) allowing them to avoid learning to be more popular while they still have the chance.

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#347

Post by Shane » Mon Dec 19, 2016 8:36 pm

The whole Trump has a 1% chance of winning nonsense was some combination of wishful thinking and fake news, though a year ago, he wasn't being considered a real threat either. Even beyond Trump, I wasn't expecting Hillary to outright dismiss 1/4th of the electorate, and the rise of socialism by that specific name in this country is a relatively new phenomenon that didn't have quite enough steam but may break out in the coming decade.

The question if the GOP can't recapture the popular vote is where they lose control. Coal miners in Ohio or people in little but important now yet completely irrelevant in a popular vote New Hampshire aren't really concerned with what Californians think. If the GOP start to lose places like the southwest, that would be a cause for concern. Remaining competitive without Texas is a large undertaking no matter what the rest of the map looks like. The growing Hispanic population is the biggest challenge that does not have very much time left to be improved, and a wall may be a big gamble.
Now I know there's a reason you shouldn't blame others when you do something wrong, and that reason is: you might get caught and have to apologize to a bunch of dumb peasants.

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#348

Post by CaptHayfever » Tue Dec 20, 2016 9:27 am

Also, attempting to make another country pay for said wall is an even bigger gamble.

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#349

Post by Christmas PDN » Tue Dec 20, 2016 11:44 am

The wall isn't going to do anything, realistically. Most illegal immigrants just overstay their work visas. All it'll accomplish is stepping on the toes of private landowners on the Rio Grande. Surely a good idea to win Texas votes is forcibly using Texan's land.

I don't think Trump is going to build the wall. Maybe he'll start construction, but I don't see him attempting to actually complete such an expensive venture when the payout is virtually nothing.

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#350

Post by New! Tazy Ten » Tue Dec 20, 2016 11:46 am

Also, they're just gonna dig under it.

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#351

Post by Shane » Tue Dec 20, 2016 7:29 pm

Millions of people cross the border illegally. It's not the only way, but it's the easiest way. You can walk across the "river" dressed as Osama bin Laden and nobody will notice.

I don't see a way around wall building given how high on the priority list he placed it. What specific form that may take is perhaps another story. Hungary built a fence and saw its daily illegal migrants drop from 4600 to 15.
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#352

Post by Sim Kid » Wed Dec 21, 2016 5:44 pm

That and planes can just fly over it and boats can go around it anyway.

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#353

Post by Shane » Wed Dec 21, 2016 6:30 pm

It's definitely not a perfect solution. It's probably not even half a solution. It's a start, both as a physical and psychological barrier. Of course, it may also serve as a physical reminder of the person/party that put it there, whatever that may mean.
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#354

Post by Sim Kid » Wed Dec 21, 2016 6:54 pm

Now I wonder what they intend to do about automation, too...

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#355

Post by X-3 » Wed Dec 21, 2016 8:22 pm

Easy. They'll blame whatever economical/social/safety problems exist then on robots.

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#356

Post by Sim Kid » Wed Dec 21, 2016 10:45 pm

You sure they won't just find some way to blame those no-good-dirty-rotten-job-stealing-immigrants? (Who are somehow also too lazy to work at the same time... schrodinger's immigrants?)

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#357

Post by Auron » Thu Dec 22, 2016 12:19 am

They'll obviously blame the Democrats. It's just politics. Neither side is ever wrong and it's always the other guys fault. Decreased regulations and increased tax cuts for the rich leads to increased deportation of jobs and increased automation? It's clearly lasting effects of Obamanomics. Give us four more years to fix it.

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#358

Post by Shane » Thu Dec 22, 2016 6:29 pm

There's an easy target for robots. $15/hour minimum wage. They're coming anyway, but this is basically just like saying if you're looking for trouble, we'll help you find it. Once they take over, socialism may well become the most viable form of government.
Now I know there's a reason you shouldn't blame others when you do something wrong, and that reason is: you might get caught and have to apologize to a bunch of dumb peasants.

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#359

Post by JOEBIALEK » Sun Jan 01, 2017 2:57 pm

The debate has started again as to whether the US Constitution should be amended in order to change the presidential election process. Some promote
eliminating the Electoral College in favor of a direct popular vote for president while others believe the Electoral College should remain unchanged. Just as compromise solved the initial problems of the framers so it is that compromise can solve this problem. The solution is to change the electoral votes to electoral points and reward each candidate a percentage of points based on the percentage of popular votes received in each state.
This would eliminate the "winner take all" system thus allowing for all the votes to count. A voter is more apt to believe their vote counted when a percentage of popular votes are taken into account rather than the "all or nothing" system currently in existence. Further, this new system would integrate the desire for a popular vote for president with the need for the individual states to determine who actually gets elected.

As for political primaries the number of delegates awarded in each state should be determined by the percentage of votes won by each candidate.

For 2016 multiplying the percentage of votes each candidate received {in each state} times the number of electoral votes {in each state} results in the following: Clinton 256.985 and Trump 253.482.
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#360

Post by I REALLY HATE PRESENTS! » Sun Jan 01, 2017 4:44 pm

We should develop a better way of accurately testing intelligence and grant each vote a number of points based on that. Idiots shouldn't have so much sway in deciding our fate.

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